Commodity market
outlook
AI-generated commodity intelligence powered by real-time market data.
Powered by SIGMA, generated by AIMA
Executive summmary
Commodity markets remain heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and expectations for tighter monetary policy. Aluminium continues to outperform as production constraints create a structural deficit, while copper benefits from long-term demand linked to AI infrastructure and electrification.
Executive summmary
Gold has weakened in the short term as higher inflation expectations and rising yields reduce its appeal, although long-term fundamentals remain supportive. Across the broader metals complex, supply remains tight, creating a constructive backdrop despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Commodity spotlight
Aluminium
Largest aluminium supply shock in at least 50 years continues to drive structural deficits across the market.
Copper
Electrification, renewable energy and AI infrastructure continue to support long-term demand growth.
Gold
Higher inflation expectations, a stronger US dollar and rising rate expectations continue to weigh on prices.
Tin
Tightening supply dynamics and growing demand from semiconductors and AI infrastructure continue to support prices.
Nickel
Changes to Indonesian production and rising input costs are reshaping market fundamentals.
Zinc
Low inventories and ongoing production disruptions are helping maintain supportive market conditions.
Market performance
Natural Gas and Gold have been the strongest performers over the last twelve months, while most agricultural commodities remain range-bound. Platinum has also shown strong momentum since early 2026.
Graphic built by IRIS, our interactive data visualisation tool
Risk and Portfolio
insights
Silver delivered the strongest returns but with elevated volatility. Gold provided a more balanced risk-return profile, while broad commodity ETFs offered diversified exposure with relatively contained volatility. Natural Gas remains the weakest risk-adjusted performer.
Graphic built by IRIS, our interactive data visualisation tool
Graphic built by IRIS, our interactive data visualisation tool
Correlation analysis highlights significant diversification opportunities within commodities. Gold remains largely independent from oil price movements, while Natural Gas shows minimal correlation with most major commodity sectors, making it one of the strongest diversification candidates within the asset class.
What to do next?
Let us show how you can create your own reports, book a demo with our team
